Build a strategy, then see how it would have done against real closing lines. Free, and no sign-up needed.
Uses closing lines. 1 unit is risked per bet at the listed odds; spread and total bets before 2006 assume −110. Pushes return the stake. The "luck check" is a one-sided test of whether average profit per bet is above zero. Past results don't guarantee future results. Data: nflverse. Games through .
Pick a bet type (spread, moneyline or total), a side and any filters. We apply that rule to every NFL game in the data and grade each bet against the closing line, the last price before kickoff. Step-by-step guide.
Compare your win rate with the break-even rate shown under it: at -110 odds you need 52.4% just to break even. Units are profit when risking 1 unit per bet; ROI is profit per unit risked. Why 52.4%?
The chance a strategy with no real edge would do at least this well. Small samples and heavily filtered rules often look great by luck alone, so treat anything above 5% with suspicion. Skill or luck?
Every game and closing line since 1999 from the open-source nflverse project. Moneylines and actual spread and total prices start in 2006; earlier spread and total bets are graded at -110. Lines explained.