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How to research NFL player props

Player props are bets on one player’s stats, like a receiver going over 64.5 receiving yards. They’re popular, and easy to research badly. Here’s a sound way to look at them.

Start with the hit rate, then question it

The hit rate is how often the player cleared the line: if he went over 64.5 yards in 7 of his last 10 games, the hit rate is 70%. It's the natural first number to check, and the easiest to over-trust.

• Small samples swing. 7 of 10 is consistent with a true rate anywhere from about 40% to 90%. Use the last 5 or 10 for current form, but check the full season too.
• Roles change. A trade, an injury to a teammate or a new quarterback can make old games irrelevant. That's what "with or without a teammate" splits are for.
• Lines move with performance. After three big games, the book raises the line. Check old games against today's number, not the number at the time.

Median beats average for yards

One 180-yard game can drag a receiver's average well above what he usually does. The median, the middle game, is a better guide to a typical week, and it's closer to how an over/under line is set. If the average is 72 but the median is 58, a line of 64.5 is closer to a coin flip than the average suggests.

Turn the hit rate into a price

A hit rate only matters relative to the odds. Convert it to fair odds, the price at which betting it would break even:

• 60% hit rate → fair odds of -150
• 55% → -122
• 50% → +100
• 45% → +122

If the hit rate implies -150 and your book offers -115, the price looks favorable if the hit rate is reliable. If the book offers -170, it doesn't. The player props page does this conversion for you and shows the value at the price you enter.

Check the matchup and the game

• Defense vs position. How many yards or receptions this week's opponent allows to the player's position, compared with the rest of the league.
• Game script. A big underdog often throws more; a big favorite often runs more late. The spread and the team's implied points hint at both.
• Situation splits. Home and away, favored and underdog, indoors and outdoors, high or low game totals.

Traps to avoid

• Cherry-picking windows. "Over in 6 of his last 7" ignores the 8 games before that.
• Stacking parlays on hit rates. Three 70% legs don't make a 70% parlay; they make about 34%, before the book's margin.
• Missing games. Our stats come from games where the player recorded at least one stat. A player who played but never touched the ball may be missing from his log, which can make overs look slightly better than reality for low-usage players.

Snap Theory is a research tool, not betting advice. Past results don't guarantee future results. 21+.