Pick a player, a stat and a line. See how often he's cleared it, how he does in this kind of game, and how soft his next matchup is.
Hit rate counts overs (or unders) out of games he recorded a stat, pushes excluded. "Fair odds" is the price that hit rate would justify; it is not a projection. Small samples swing a lot: 7 of 10 is a hint, not proof. Data: nflverse weekly player stats, through .
How often the player went over (or under) the line in the games you selected, with pushes left out. Last 5 and last 10 show form; the full season is a steadier guide. Prop research guide.
We turn the hit rate into the price at which betting it would break even. Enter the odds your book offers to see the value at that price, if the hit rate held. Break-even explained.
How many of this stat the next opponent allows per game to the player’s position this season, ranked against the league. A soft matchup is a reason to look closer, not a guarantee.
Weekly player stats from the open-source nflverse project. A game appears in a player’s log when he recorded at least one stat, which can slightly flatter overs for low-usage players.